Bitwise’s Dragosch sees up to 20% further downside for bitcoin, puts ‘max pain’ scenario at $48,000

Editorial Team·June 13, 2026·Updated: June 13, 2026·3 min read·Source: The Block

Bitwise's Dragosch sees up to 20% more bitcoin downside, with the long-term holder cost basis at $48,000 the "max pain" scenario.

TL;DR: According to Bitwise's Dragosch, Bitcoin might decline by an additional 20%, with a critical support level at $48,000 identified as the "max pain" scenario for long-term holders.

Current Bitcoin Market Landscape

As of late 2023, Bitcoin continues to be a focal point for investors and analysts alike, grappling with fluctuating prices and market uncertainties. Recent insights from Bitwise’s Head of Research, Daniel Dragosch, suggest that Bitcoin may be facing **up to a 20% decline**, potentially bringing its price down further from the current levels.

Understanding the "Max Pain" Scenario

Dragosch has pointed out that the **long-term holder cost basis** for Bitcoin sits at **$48,000**. He describes this level as the "max pain" point for holders, where significant financial pressure could lead to increased sell-offs. According to him, if Bitcoin drops to this level, it could trigger a wave of selling from investors who bought in at higher prices, driven by the desire to cut losses.

The term "max pain" typically refers to a price level where the maximum number of options (puts and calls) are set to expire worthless, leading to significant selling pressure. This could create a self-reinforcing downward spiral if investors react to market sentiment by liquidating their holdings.

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Market Sentiment and Future Projections

The cryptocurrency market has been known for its volatility, with prices often influenced by external factors such as regulatory changes, macroeconomic conditions, and shifts in investor sentiment. **Recent trends** indicate that investor demand for Bitcoin is diminishing, raising concerns among analysts about the sustainability of rallies in such a precarious environment.

While Dragosch's research underscores the risks involved, it also reflects a broader perspective within the crypto community. Many analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price movements, with several projecting the possibility of further price adjustments depending on how market conditions evolve.

The Implications of a Downward Trend

If Bitcoin does follow Dragosch's prediction and moves closer to the $48,000 mark, the implications could be significant. For long-term holders, this scenario may provoke reactions ranging from **further entrenchment in the market** to widespread panic selling.

Moreover, a deeper dive into the data shows that as Bitcoin hovers near its historical lows, the confidence among traders could further wane. In such a scenario, caution among potential investors will likely increase, making it difficult for Bitcoin to regain momentum even if it manages to bounce back from any downward swings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "max pain" level for Bitcoin?

The "max pain" level for Bitcoin, as identified by Bitwise’s Daniel Dragosch, is **$48,000**, a point where most long-term holders may face significant financial pressure to sell.

How much further could Bitcoin drop?

According to Dragosch's analysis, Bitcoin could experience a **decline of up to 20%** from its current price levels, possibly hitting the $48,000 mark.

What factors could influence Bitcoin’s price in the future?

Bitcoin’s price can be influenced by a variety of factors, including **regulatory developments**, **market sentiment**, **macroeconomic trends**, and the overall demand for cryptocurrencies among investors.

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